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Hi eljefebob! Don't know if you remember me or not, but I was one of your Chronicle message board friends. I missed your Chron entries, Google searched for you and low and behold, found you AND desparado on here! I am definitely glad to see that!

Unfortunately, I let the social conservatives get the best of me, and my "wilcorules" profile was kicked off of the Chron. I just couldn't help myself... the more dumb comments I read the more the words "you dumb redneck" flowed out of my keyboard. Oh wells, it was a good run!

I didn't realize you had a book out there, with pretty good reviews on Amazon I might add, and since my brother works with a company that contracts with BP a lot, I am going to make sure and point him in your book's direction.

Anyway, I am glad you are still blogging somewhere and I hope your life is going well. Mine certainly is. I have a beautiful fiance and two wonderful, future step daughters, 6 and 8. Great ages indeed and I am a very happy man!

Keep on writing!

WilcoRules

Hi Bob,

Perhaps you would consider an article addressing the sharp increase in the cost of gasoline in the past few weeks, I may have missed it if you already have. I just about coughed up my morning coffee today as I read an article on fuel price increases in the Chronicle and the responses from the usual right wing bloggers made there. Most blamed it on Obama's green energy policies (whatever they think those are) and a lack of supply and of course insist that we increase domestic drilling. I also read in the Huff Post the other day that this will be a new talking point for the GOP as the election cycle gears up.

I am no oil expert but from what I understand, we don't have a supply issue right now. Last week USA Today had an interview with Exxon CEO Rex Tillerman and he even stated this. Also, demand seems still relatively low compared to the summer 2 years ago when gas prices were so high, Americans are still conserving and the general economy is still slow. Correct me if I am wrong but 2 of the behind the scenes reasons for increases are commodity speculation and the weak dollar.

I also don't think these pro drilling in America folks understand that in our free market, there is no guarantee that oil companies will sell American crude to Americans. And as for not importing from those terrorist foreign oil countries, my wife's job is oil business related and she has been up in Fort McMurray, Canada for the past few weeks on a project and she pointed out that Exxon is a major player in the tar sands project with Syncrude as are others.

Anyway, thanks if you can address any of this, I always enjoy The DH! At the Chronicle I go under the username Mr. Stretchy and feel like I am the lone voice of reason there now, just about ready to give up

Not yet until we have more info. Since 75% of the Macondo oil is unaccounted for, no one should be surprised, though.

Please email me bob@dailyhurricane.com

Hi Bob,

Great site!
My name is Maria Rainier. I am a blogger and a freelancer who is trying to build up my portfolio and would love to post as a guest on The Daily Hurricane. I'd be more than happy to come up with something unique and interesting to contribute on current events, political news, public policy issues, etc or write about any ideas you may have for a guest post!

Would love to discuss and I don't want to write a book here in your comments section so if you're interested, please send me an email. :)

Thanks!
Maria

Hi Bob,

I'm sorry for submitting my last comment on Desperado's MLK post twice. I thought it didn't go through so I used the back arrow and hit submit again. I noticed that it was removed and I sincerely apologize if the comment was over the top. I certainly didn't mean anything negative about any race at all, nor did I intend to offend anyone. I have enjoyed the liberty to comment without waiting for approval that you've given me and I certainly don't wish to make you regret that. I honestly thought many of the regulars were fans of Mr. Carlin.

Hi Bob,

Just in case you haven't seen or wish to post this (and I know you probably have seen it because it's a little old now):

http://bp.concerts.com/gom/deepwater_horizon_report_long.htm

Have you covered the possibility, explained in this "production" (11:35 into it), that the loss of power could have caused the Dynamic Positioning system to fail, breaking the BOP seal around the drill pipe?

I think I've told you before, I'm a mariner (Ballast Control Operator). I've never been part of a drilling crew, but I have seen my share of DP problems, even since this disaster.

Phitz - The bloggers here have a right to their own opinion, as do you. My suggestion is, don't like it? Don't read it.

Free speech and all.

Nice piece in the Chronicle today featuring Gracie's take on the Lawndale Art Center. Please pass along my appreciation for her adventurous spirit in art.

I found the quote, and wrote it up here.

Mr. Cavnar,

Thank you for your response. I agree that there is no evidence for a second leaking well, although I don't have the background myself to refute it.

By the way, some are disputing your analysis on pressure. See this. I don't have the background to comment, and there's no need for you to reply. I am just calling your attention to one of the ways that others are trying to attack your recent comments.

Keep up the great work ... you are one of the few independent oil industry voices out there.

Dear Mr. Cavnar,

I frequently quote you on my blog, and tremendously enjoy your writing.

You have recently written on Matt Simmons and his hyperbole on the BP oil spill (but your respect for him in general). I have also tried to objectively assess Mr. Simmons' claims about the oil spill.

Here is my question. A set of videos are widely making the rounds on the Internet wherein a self-described surveyor claims to prove Simmons' claim of another leak miles away from the underwater cameras.

I would be grateful if you or one of your petroleum industry contacts could debunk (or confirm) this claim.

I was actually watching about that time. They were apparently testing lines getting ready for the static kill and one of the lines, which are flexible hoses, burst. After this storm of mud, the ROV picked up the line and you could see it blowing with a ragged hole in it. Don't think it was much more than that. This disaster is bad enough without people like this guy clipping short intervals and making it to be something more than it is.

Sorry you're having trouble, Dave. We've tested the captcha code and it's working fine. Remember, the code is case sensitive, so please be sure to type it in just as you see it. You can also use other IDs to register.

Bob

this is pretty amazing, eljefe - another Regressive calls for the Bush tax cuts to EXPIRE:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/opinion/01stockman.html?hp

this guy was Reagan's budget director, and since he joins Greenspan, only the ' let 'em eat cake ' crowd is calling for extending!

Dear Mr. Cavner

The reason that the USEPA and other Federal Agencies are not actively participating in the Gulf is because for these two reasons: (1) there is a "GAG ORDER" on federal employees and (2) all corporations are allowed to keep secret any and all information about their products. Both of these reasons are stated in the Patriot Act I and II that was put in place under Bush and has not been recended under the Obama Administration. Additionally, if you search the background of the current EPA Administrator, Lisa Jackson when she was director of New Jersey's Department of Environment, you will find the same practice if industrial influence that is occurring now with BP as occurred under Bush with Steven Johnson as EPA Administrator. In other words Obama = Bush.

The "Oil Pollution Control Act" (OPCA) of 1990 has an rediculously low penalty is for this reason, that has not been stated in the media is because of another OIL MAN, George H.W. Bush.

Here is a quote from history regarding oil: "If you control oil, you control nations" by Henry Kissinger, 1974 (National Security Study Memorandum, (NSSM 200)) a.k.a. "The Kissinger Report".

If you require additional information, please send me an email.

Michael "DOC" E. Davis

VIP: Admiral Allen Reports Oil is seeping up from floor a distance from the well, DOESN'T THIS MEAN THE WELL IS BREACHED WAY BELOW AND OIL IS MASSING SUBSURFACE? clearly this is an ominous sign, the flow should be tapped to the surface, pressure lowered, and bottom kill begun ASAP.. right?

in a recent interview with James Carville, he said that Mr. Bea agreed that the moratorium should be lifted. Is that now Mr. Bea's position? From his previous comments, that seems surprising.

We appreciate your opinions/explanations when you appear on MSMBC.

Bob, would you be interested in participating in or even leading a project to identify technologies that will make offshore drilling safer? Yes, I know all that will be done by numerous industry and government groups, but can we trust them to get it right?

What I envision is a place where people like myself can contribute ideas, those ideas will be given serious consideration, and if they are good, will be included in some kind of compilation at the end. Existing forums seem to be dominated by industry and people who cannot think outside the box.

I started an article at Wikipedia [[Offshore oil spill prevention]], expecting to get some participation from experts in oil drilling, but it was quickly overwhelmed by folks whose interest seems to be in diluting anything that focuses too sharply on deficiencies in the status quo. Now, I can't even get through the introduction without my eyes glazing over.

See sandbox for my current collection of ideas. All of this is public information (no "intellectual property"). You are welcome to use it on your website, and I will help in any way I can.

I have also started a discussion forum, where I am encouraging in-depth technical discussions that would be too long for other forums. If you would rather host those discussions on your website, that is OK with me.

Keep up the good work.

Why haven't they let scientists check things out there? why did they wait so long to put this cap on? Why haven't they tested the flow rate? What happened to the second drill pipe that Suttles said mysteriously disappeared? Some interesting thoughts here:

“That is not the main leak. The main leak, as Matt Simmons correctly stated, is in a different location (or several as there are cracks and it will look like what the top of a blown-out volcano looks like – ugly, not with a beautiful pipe flange – lol so gullible). The reason this is happening now is not because it took almost three months to build it (come on, it’s just a pipe flange – they could build a simple one first, and then put in a better one later). Not because they were afraid of more flow (the new pipe could be bolted on in one day). Notice how this is all happening at the same time?! Come on people. Their plan is to breach the wellbore and at the same time put on their show cap and turn them on at the SAME TIME and claim the cap worked! lol. Then the perfect cover-up will be complete.

He further says, “Here is the worry. As Matt also stated, if the casing is gone, the relief wells will not work. Thus, if they reach the old wellbore and cannot find the casing, they will not be able to seal the well. If that happens, they will claim the well cap did not work and will continue to show the TV leak to the world. Cool huh?”

http://www.ndchronicle.com/news/New_cap_placed_on_leaking_well__BP_oil_spill_update__BP_oil_spill_live_feed__footage_and_cause_1279008434/

Mr. Cavnar:

It was a pleasure to meet you and the NBC Crew on the M/V Skye Falgout, back on June 20. It was humbling to see a team make such personal sacrifices to keep the public informed.

Greatly appreciate your comments about the workers on vessels at the Source in the Gulf of Mexico.

As far as I can tell, you are the only one that has recognized their dedicated efforts.

bob,
read in today's chron that diamond filed a lawsuit against obama to oppose a drilling moratorium. so i clicked on diamond and combed over their website. one thing that really struck me was information which seemed conflicting, so i'm hoping you can shed some light, even do a blog sometime. diamond was mentioned in several energy trade publications as operating "semi-submersible" rigs anywhere from 7,000 to 10,000 feet. one particular was listed as the "american confidence", rated at 10,000 feet. now here's the million dollar question: if we have a 5,000 oil spew which NOBODY can solve and is hopeless, how can diamond brag about having a well operated by BP that operates at 7,500 ft, rated all the way to 10,000? i'm hoping that the discovery done in the diamond v. obama case exposes at least some of the industry trickery. the media seems stuck on the barton story, incapable of true investigative journalism.

Bob,

I came across info recently that suggests there are serious problems with the integrity of the casing down below the seabed. The implication is that restricting the outflow (by a top kill, or effective capping) will blow out the casing deep underground. The resulting leak would be unstoppable by any means.

Details here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

I'd be eager to hear what you have to say about this possibility.

Dear Bob,
Would supertankers actually help suck up more oil if they were sitting just next to the Horizon Well? Also could the supertankers be used to suck up the oil from the plumes? Is this different from the Arabian Gulf spill where they did use supertankers?

Thank you for your comments on Keith and CNN--your explanations have been very helpful.
(I'm a friend of Gracie's--yet isn't everyone?)

Great editorials and insights. Been following you for the last few weeks and have enjoyed efforts.

I thought I would share with you our explosives crimping technology that BP and the Government has known about since April 27, 2010.

Hydro Cut Corporation invented and patented explosives crimping technologies in the early 90's in an effort to support faster attack methods for the Kuwait oil spills caused by Iraqi forces were 500 million gallons were spilled.

Apparently BP and USH have resigned themselves and any response efforts to kill the well to "drilling relief wells and plugging it from below". A process which will take them into late October-December IF all goes according to plan, however the last time this was attempted took 12 weeks once the relief wells were drilled, so don''t be to optimistic.

Best, Michael

Hello,

Only been reading for a couple of days but quite
enjoy your analysis.

While reading earlier posts I came across this
one of 6/6/10 titled "New Rule:..." containing
the following observation

"...It's CEO, who's all over our televisions, is a
Brit reading from an infuriating script prepared by
his London based PR folks."

I am sure you are aware that about 6/1/10
Anne Womack-Kolton a former Dick Cheney, I
repeat, Dick Cheney, press aide was hired by
BP to handle the GOM press for BP. I haven't
read much comment about this bit of Irony (sic)
anywhere and I was wondering if you know if she
is in NO or here in Houston at BP or just where
she is and whether one can detect her spinfluence
yet?

Regards,
bubbalip

I am a meteorologist in Northwest Arkansas and wanted to share a blog I just finished called "Hurricane and Oil... What if?" So what happens to the oil in a hurricane? Direct Link is http://www.weatherrick.com/ricksweatherblog.html

Rick Katzfey
www.WeatherRick.com

You all my like the song "Go Away Mr. Hayward". It is a direct jab at Tony Hayward CEO BP. The song can be found at: Trashton Porter on youtube. Or, "Oilageddon" page of facebook... "The Ocean's dyin'" is another great new Blues tune that can be found at the same locations...spread the word

Bob,

Did you know that less than two years ago, BP was boasting to the oil industry, in its own publication, that it had developed the technology to accurately measure flow rates of hydrocarbons mixed with "troublesome percentages of liquids or gas?" Now suddenly they don't have a clue.

They are now admitting that the maximum flow rate possible is 160,000 barrels per day. How much more of a smoking gun do you need?

-- excerpt from p. 5 of BP's own Frontiers publication, August, 2008:

"... BP has identified that by combining sonar flow measurement with additional measured parameters, such as pressure drop in a flow line, both the liquid rate and the gas rate on a wet gas flow line can be determined. BP has proven this additional breakthrough in practice and expects to deploy the technique in the field by the end of this year.

It appears that measuring hydrocarbon flows which contain small but troublesome percentages of liquids or gas may be less problematic in the future thanks to BP's creative vision for sonar flow measurement."

www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/frontiers/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/bpf22_34-38_sonarflow.pdf

Their first video clearly showed oil flowing at considerably more than one pipe diameter per second. Ambient pressure a mile down is around 2,000 psi. BP says the pressure inside the pipe is 16,000 psi. Gas volumes are compressed under pressure. Liquid volumes are not. The relative volume of gas inside the well is insignificant to the volume of oil, but methane is also toxic.

Tenth grade math will tell you that a 21.5-inch diameter pipe, flowing at 22.5-inches per second, is 70,000 barrels per day, no matter what the fluid is. That is not an opinion the media should need an expert to confirm. It is very basic math, just dust off an old pocket calculator. Apparently no one in the media can do tenth grade math. This is an even bigger story about the failure of education.

Woods Hole has a submersible with this sonar technology to measure sea floor vents, but was denied access to the site by BP.

Hi Bob,
I am 15 years old, and I am currently involved in creating a student environmental organization in New Hampshire. I am trying to spread awareness of our environment, and the BP oil spill. I hope eventually by spreading awareness, we can cause change in environmental policy. I have been following your daily posts about the Gulf oil spill, and I have enjoyed the technical and unbiased opinions on this matter. I am wondering if it is possible to have you write an article for an audience of teens summarizing the events that have taken place, and the political events that allowed this to happen. Do you have any tips on how we could help, or what my organization could possibly do?
Sincerely Henrik

Mr. Cavnar,
They just cut the riser pipe to put a stop valve on. I have had no success for a month getting them to use a hydraulic clamp to compress the pipe to stop the flow. It is obvious they BP have no interest in stopping the flow but have every intention of keeping the drilled well alive so it can provide income to them. If you have a voice on this travesty to the environment can you ask why they never used a hydraulic press to crimp the pipe closed to stop the flow!
Bill Leigh

Early on, I heard about the Acoustic trigger. What is it ? I also understand Norway and Brazil require it on each well. Why doesn't the USA ?

Who decided we didn't need it ?

thanks
tom mullen
richfield mn

Bob,Can i get a direct feed to Facebook? I spend a lot of time there spreading the word, and would like it to appear on my Wall regularly. thanks, Shawn