The Debt Ceiling Circus Rolls On

In the battle of the dueling plans, after being chastised by Eric Cantor ("stop whining") and John Boehner ("get your ass in line") yesterday the House is expected to vote today on the Boehner plan. The Hill is calling it a "referendum" on Boehner's ability to lead.

Meanwhile in the Senate:

"Mr. Reid sent Mr. Boehner a letter signed by all 51 Senate Democrats and two independents assuring that his legislation, which would raise the debt ceiling for roughly six months -- far less than President Obama wants -- faced certain failure in his chamber."

Stalemate, anyone? Still think the 14th Amendment isn't an option, Mr. President?.

Nate Silver describes the similarities and differences in the two:

"Both bills cut discretionary spending by about the same amount, roughly $1.2 trillion depending on which benchmark is used. Both set up a bipartisan fiscal commission with special powers. Neither raises taxes, or significantly changes entitlement programs.

Mr. Reid's bill contains a little bit more deficit reduction by cutting agricultural subsidies, selling radio spectrum licenses and improving I.R.S. enforcement. Its savings are also somewhat more front-loaded, with deficit reduction of $30 billion in 2012 as compared with $1 billion for Mr. Boehner's

[...]

The only real difference, instead, is that Mr. Boehner's bill would require Congress to approve another increase in the debt limit early next year if it fails to approve the fiscal commission's recommendations, while Mr. Reid's would extend the deadline beyond the end of President Obama's first term in one fell swoop."

Where is President Obama? On the sideline, says Jackie Calmes in the New York Times:

"The two parties remain seemingly further apart than just days before the Treasury Department's Aug. 2 deadline for raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit, threatening a financial crisis that could ripple through the economy. But with the collapse last week of Mr. Obama's back-channel talks with House Speaker John A. Boehner, the action has shifted to Congress.

Having already deployed the heavy weapons from the presidential arsenal, including a national address on Monday night and a veto threat, Mr. Obama is in danger of seeming a spectator at one of the most critical moments of his presidency. Having been unable to get the grand bargain he wanted -- a debt limit increase and up to $4 trillion in debt-reduction through spending cuts and taxes -- Mr. Obama's challenge now is to reassert himself in a way that produces the next-best outcome, or at least one that does no harm to his re-election hopes."

About that August 2 deadline, is it or isn't it?

"The Aug. 2 deadline for raising the nation's debt ceiling might not be as rigid a cutoff date as the administration has been saying, according to some senior Senate Democrats.

Senate Democrats, in the midst of stalemated negotiations, acknowledge there might be some flexibility with the deadline Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has set for raising the national debt limit.

While administration officials have insisted there is no wiggle room beyond Tuesday, some senior Democrats say the economy will not necessarily come crashing down immediately.

Analyses by Barclays and UBS suggest a national default could be pushed back until Aug. 8 or Aug. 10 because the federal government has received a higher flow of tax revenues than it had earlier anticipated. "

[...]

"White House Budget Director Jack Lew likewise insists there is no wiggle room. "Aug. 2 is very real," he said Tuesday on MSNBC. But some Democrats are skeptical of Lew after he told them at a meeting last Thursday that media reports of an imminent debt-limit deal between President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) were false."

Fool me once.....

Republicans are turning on the Tea Party over their rejection of the Boehner plan. John McCain:

"Mr. McCain mocked Tea Party-allied Republicans in the House for believing -- wrongly, he said -- that President Obama and Democrats will get the blame for a default if Republicans refuse to increase the nation's debt ceiling.

[...]

"This is the kind of crack political thinking that turned Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell into G.O.P. nominees," he jeered, referring to two losing Tea Party candidates for the Senate in 2010."

The Wall Street Journal editorial pages:

"But what none of these critics have is an alternative strategy for achieving anything nearly as fiscally or politically beneficial as Mr. Boehner's plan. The idea seems to be that if the House GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling, a default crisis or gradual government shutdown will ensue, and the public will turn en masse against..Barack Obama. The Republican House that failed to raise the debt ceiling would somehow escape all blame. Then Democrats would have no choice but to pass a balanced-budget amendment and reform entitlements, and the tea-party Hobbits could return to Middle Earth having defeated Mordor."

Former New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman:

"These members may not care about the economic ramifications of a national default, but they should... I also realize that these new House members don't really care about the rest of the world or what they think of us, but the current spectacle of the talks in Washington have gone from bemusing our allies around the world to undermining their confidence in our stability as a nation...It's time to end this debacle."

Speaking of the Tea Party, they held a "hold the line" rally on the steps of the Capitol yesterday:

"It had all the makings of a big time tea party rally: Presidential candidate Herman Cain, conservative Sens. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Mike Lee of Utah all showed up outside the Capitol Wednesday to urge members to "hold the line" against a deficit reduction compromise.

The only thing missing? A big audience.

At the start of the rally, which was organized by the American Grassroots Coalition and Tea Party Express, there were roughly 15 attendees waiting to hear the conservative lawmakers speak. By the time the senators had spoken there were still fewer than 50 tea partiers in attendance."

The drought must be taking its toll on the "grassroots."

Today's recommended reading, "The Empty Bully Pulpit", by Robert Reich.