UPDATED 6:00 pm, May 29: It's become obvious from BP's doublespeak and moving of the goalposts that the top kill hasn't worked. I'm beginning to hear exactly that; that BP knows the top kill has failed, but that they are continuing to pump mud out on the ocean floor rather than admit it. Typically, you know pretty quickly if a top kill works. BP has been
pumping the kill since Wednesday, trying a number of tactics,
including junk shots. Their announcement last night that it would be
at least through the weekend before if they know the results of the
kill doesn't ring true to me. Certainly they know a lot more than what
they are saying.
Recall that a top kill will work only if enough back pressure can be generated in the leaking wellhead to allow the pumped mud to overcome the pressure from the well, turn the flow around, and then build enough hydrostatic head to overcome the formation pressure. The junk shot was designed to do just that, but apparently BP had decided to try just mud for the first effort. I believe that the high rate that BP pumped the mud washed out the cracks in the riser, actually reducing back pressure. The cracks in the riser are where you saw the mud flowing if you watched the live feed of the top kill the last couple of days. As a side note, I do find it interesting that the BP feed no longer includes the bent riser view of the last couple of days,and now looks like the end of the riser where the riser insertion tool had been used previously.
Because of the washed out riser cracks, the bridging material pumped in for the junk shot probably can't clog up the riser and BOP enough to overcome the flowing pressure and allow mud to go down the well, so the mud they are pumping is likely just going into the kill and chokes valves and coming out the top of the BOP. That's not all bad, of course, if the pressure of the mud is at least restricting the flow of oil from the well, but it is certainly not a long term solution, and they are risking washing out the riser even further.
I'm now hearing that BP determined the top kill failure sometime in the last 24 hours, but rather than announce it, have decided to just keep pumping until the next alternative is decided, either the LMRP (lower marine riser cap) cap to bring flow to the surface, or removing the LMRP and landing a new BOP on top of the failed one.
I'll continue to monitor this recent development, but I'm not expecting good news in the near term.
UPDATE 6:00 pm, May 29: BP just held a press conference confirming what we were hearing this morning, that the top kill had failed, and that they were just pumping thousands of barrels of mud onto the sea floor. Doug Suttles, BP's CEO,stated that they are immediately moving to the LMRP cap, which will require cutting off the riser above the lower marine riser package, which is on top of the BOP. A containment vessel with a gasketed connection to minimize sea water influx will be placed over the cut riser, connected to the surface by another riser to collect the produced oil. Fingers crossed that this works.
Recall that a top kill will work only if enough back pressure can be generated in the leaking wellhead to allow the pumped mud to overcome the pressure from the well, turn the flow around, and then build enough hydrostatic head to overcome the formation pressure. The junk shot was designed to do just that, but apparently BP had decided to try just mud for the first effort. I believe that the high rate that BP pumped the mud washed out the cracks in the riser, actually reducing back pressure. The cracks in the riser are where you saw the mud flowing if you watched the live feed of the top kill the last couple of days. As a side note, I do find it interesting that the BP feed no longer includes the bent riser view of the last couple of days,and now looks like the end of the riser where the riser insertion tool had been used previously.
Because of the washed out riser cracks, the bridging material pumped in for the junk shot probably can't clog up the riser and BOP enough to overcome the flowing pressure and allow mud to go down the well, so the mud they are pumping is likely just going into the kill and chokes valves and coming out the top of the BOP. That's not all bad, of course, if the pressure of the mud is at least restricting the flow of oil from the well, but it is certainly not a long term solution, and they are risking washing out the riser even further.
I'm now hearing that BP determined the top kill failure sometime in the last 24 hours, but rather than announce it, have decided to just keep pumping until the next alternative is decided, either the LMRP (lower marine riser cap) cap to bring flow to the surface, or removing the LMRP and landing a new BOP on top of the failed one.
I'll continue to monitor this recent development, but I'm not expecting good news in the near term.
UPDATE 6:00 pm, May 29: BP just held a press conference confirming what we were hearing this morning, that the top kill had failed, and that they were just pumping thousands of barrels of mud onto the sea floor. Doug Suttles, BP's CEO,stated that they are immediately moving to the LMRP cap, which will require cutting off the riser above the lower marine riser package, which is on top of the BOP. A containment vessel with a gasketed connection to minimize sea water influx will be placed over the cut riser, connected to the surface by another riser to collect the produced oil. Fingers crossed that this works.
Desperado, that is true and I have read that August may be the worst case scenario which seems to be the norm with this operation. But directional drilling has come a long way since 79'. All we can do is hope they are successful with their first try at it and close this shut this nasty well in.
There is an excellent article in today's NYT concerning the oil spill, and our sometimes misplaced belief that technology can solve any problem.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/30/weekinreview/30rosenthal.html?hp
The one thing that British Petroleum has consistently been proficient at doing is: putting the current administration in a really bad light over this spill. Don't know what else the government can do.... but unfortunately, this is one more mess.... with its creation... (because of a culture of corruption in the MMS.... thanks to the previous administration)... that Obama inherited... and is stuck with trying to clean up.
And... it's still a friggin' nightmare... and will be so .... until August...... Geeshhhh!
Bill, guys like you are a penny a dozen. You come into a room, leave a smelly turd, then disappear. Get a life yourself!
I only know what I read, but the best-case scenario for a relief well seems to be somewhere around mid-August. That’s if BP gets it right the first time, and judging by their history I wouldn’t bet on that. It took nine months and two relief wells to be successful in the Gulf in’79. That was at a depth of 200 feet.
"Get a life".
Bill, you need to GET A DICTIONARY. You really need to learn the difference between "to", "too", and "two".
And what is YOUR background and expertise, since you seem so dismissive of someone who IS an expert in the oil and gas industry? I don't see any of the TV stations asking YOUR opinion.
Put up or shut up.
I certainly hope this is true because I am having nighmares about the entire Gulf being just a lake of oil with nothing living in it.
What is it with BP anyway? Did they learn NOTHING after the explosion in Texas City? Lies and cover ups just won't work.
No, The time line on this well spewing is growing closer to the end. They are drilling a relief well that should tie into the old well in the next few weeks. Hopefully placing a second BOP above the first will be successful but if not the relief well should not be too far off.
BIll,
Sorry, strike 3. Our information was correct this morning (see update).
BTW...You are welcome here if you are respectful of those who are on the Hurricane and want to participate. If you are not willing to play by that rule, I'm sure there are other websites where you may be more comfortable.
Here comes old expert again stating simple speculation as a second guessing bystander. Guys like this are a dime a dozen who could not solve a problem if they wanted too. Get a life.
True lies, at best. Pretty much the corporate culture of BP.
This is not good news. What on earth is the next step to stop the flow?
What happens if they can't stop it? Will it just spew for the next couple of years, completely destroying the Gulf?
oh maaan
The robot has been using a circular say on the riser about an hour ago. http://www.theculture.net/oilspill/ - Live Streaming with sound.