Over the weekend, I've learned a lot through my own research and through contacts within the industry about BP's blowout well, Mississippi Canyon Block 252, and, even though BP and Transocean remain silent as to the condition of the wellhead and BOP (blowout preventer), it seems that consensus is growing that the damage to the stack, 5,000 feet below sea level, is serious and likely irreparable. My sources tell me that ROVs have worked directly on the BOP, doing everything that should have activated it and it has failed to close. It is believed that something may have initially jammed the 
shear rams and they failed to close; however, the BOP was subsequently severely damaged by the stress of the collapsing riser that remained attached as the Deepwater Horizon sank. The riser was 5,000 feet of 21" diameter pipe, some buoyant, some negatively buoyant, putting huge forces at the stack on the sea floor as it sank.
My understanding is that the flowing wellhead pressure may be as high as 10,000 PSI and that, even if the BOP could be closed now, could very well be leaking in the locking mechanism below the stack. Leaks always get worse, not better, as anyone knows who's been annoyed by a dripping kitchen faucet. The only problem here is that this faucet is "dripping" at upwards of 25,000 barrels per day. One industry source, who has knowledge of the operations, said, "[the BOP] isn't closed and In my professional opinion, its not going to close..."
The well has now been flowing uncontrolled for 13 days. As we've talked about before, these units are designed to slam shut, not be flowed through, at least at these high rates and pressures. Erosion of the ram faces and the bore is now likely severe, further reducing its chances of ever actually shutting the well in and sealing.
I understand that preparations are now being made to cut the riser above the BOP in preparation of installing the containment structure to control the flow of oil. Essentially, it is a large structure that is lowered over the source of the leak, attached by a riser to the surface. Oil will then flow up the riser to a ship that will process and collect the oil. It is believed that, if successful, this structure could capture 85% of the produced oil. This is a technique that has been used successfully in shallow water, but never this deep. It appears to me that the containment structure is the only chance BP has of slowing the growth of the spill, at least until they get the well killed by a relief well, or if well bore damage slows the flow by itself.
I'll continue to follow this story as is develops.
shear rams and they failed to close; however, the BOP was subsequently severely damaged by the stress of the collapsing riser that remained attached as the Deepwater Horizon sank. The riser was 5,000 feet of 21" diameter pipe, some buoyant, some negatively buoyant, putting huge forces at the stack on the sea floor as it sank.My understanding is that the flowing wellhead pressure may be as high as 10,000 PSI and that, even if the BOP could be closed now, could very well be leaking in the locking mechanism below the stack. Leaks always get worse, not better, as anyone knows who's been annoyed by a dripping kitchen faucet. The only problem here is that this faucet is "dripping" at upwards of 25,000 barrels per day. One industry source, who has knowledge of the operations, said, "[the BOP] isn't closed and In my professional opinion, its not going to close..."
The well has now been flowing uncontrolled for 13 days. As we've talked about before, these units are designed to slam shut, not be flowed through, at least at these high rates and pressures. Erosion of the ram faces and the bore is now likely severe, further reducing its chances of ever actually shutting the well in and sealing.
I understand that preparations are now being made to cut the riser above the BOP in preparation of installing the containment structure to control the flow of oil. Essentially, it is a large structure that is lowered over the source of the leak, attached by a riser to the surface. Oil will then flow up the riser to a ship that will process and collect the oil. It is believed that, if successful, this structure could capture 85% of the produced oil. This is a technique that has been used successfully in shallow water, but never this deep. It appears to me that the containment structure is the only chance BP has of slowing the growth of the spill, at least until they get the well killed by a relief well, or if well bore damage slows the flow by itself.
I'll continue to follow this story as is develops.
I'm with you glennkoks. I've always understood that there is a very strong need to control the flow to preserve the formation. I've been trying to find more expert opinions on what they think will happen due to this uncontrolled flow. There are apparently 3 leaks...are these not all coming from the same wellhead?
As for the Acoustic devise goes, this would only work if the controler was taken when the rig was evacuated and the hydraulic power source was still live to the BOP.
My question is why didn't the deadman system take over when the all electrial comms was lost to the BOP. The deadman system takes the place of the acoustic system and is a much better system when properly maintained.For those who do not know what a deadman system is.There is stored hydraulic power on the BOP to clooe a set of shear rams if all electrical systems is lost to the the control pods to prevent things like this from happening.
Another question is if the well had been cased, cemented and packer seal set and tested how in the hell did the well blow out. Sounds like someone is lying, Some one was negligent and last chance was a failed BOP System. Why did it fail I am sure that root cause will come down to human error as well.
I am not in the industry, but I can subtract. The leak is flowing at 25,000 barrels per day and Deepwater Enterprise can process 15,000 barrels per day. Division comes harder for me, but I am not getting 85% recovery.
I don't really know what the pure, unrestricted flow through 21" would be, but could be significantly more than the 18 3/4" stack, especially free from the line friction of the kinked riser. Flow rates will come down over time. Most wells, when choked, decline at an ever-decreasing rate once they break over and begin to level out. Open flow, though, it's hard to say, but wellbore and formation damage has to take over at some point, hopefully soon. Increasing decline.
My sources don't confirm that, and I think it's a really low probability operation. You've got a well flowing up an 18 3/4" bore at an estimated 6,000 to 10,000 lbs. Getting another BOP on top over that flow, and getting it to lock in place is difficult, if not impossible. It seems a lower risk strategy is the containment structure to capture the vast majority of the flow, then a relief well to kill it. They spud the relief well last night.
Bob and the rest of the industry crew here, what do you think of the feasibility of installing a new BOP by ROV as the article in the Times indicates BP plans to do? They acknowledge it is "high risk". But does it have a realistic chance for success or is it really a hope and pray desperation measure because there are no other reasonable options?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/us/04spill.html?hp
1) If the failed, partially closed(?) BOP or any other mechanical apparatus was not restricting the current flow to 25,000bbl or less, what would the hypothetical flow of oil from an unrestricted 21" well be like?
2) Can we also get fluctuating flow rates over time, or should we calculate for a constant rate... until the well runs dry and or is plugged? 2b)You mentioned bore damage could hypothetically reduce rate, would that be similar to the well closing in on itself?
3) You mentioned a containment structure potentially redirecting oil to be captured. What are the risks the containment structure and surface vessel would have controlling flow? Such as, could they be a risk for the well "kicking" on them too? b)The gulf's seafloor is pretty soft, what is the risk of it giving way around the containment container? c) Where does the 15% loss come from?
If you find time to respond to any of the above questions, thanks for fielding a layman's questions. And thanks for keeping us abreast of the events.
Rob
For what it's worth...
http://blog.al.com/live/2010/05/bp_official_weve_significantly.html
OK, so they can't get it closed, and probably never will. So the only option now is a relief well drilled out from the side. Which they say will take up to 3 months.
So... this is going to be equivalent to roughly 4 of those mammoth sized oil tankers spilling their oil over a 3 months period. And like you said leaks have a tendency to get worse. Wow, what a huge fuck up.
I have kept quite about the environmental impact this whole time, but I think I am going to bring it up. Every CEO and manager in BP needs to move to the gulf coast and live on the beaches they are polluting. With their own hands they should be out there cleaning the beaches and animals.
As if the thousands of square miles of dead zones weren't bad enough...
I have talked to people in production and one of their biggest concerns is damaging a well by increasing flow rates. Most wells are carefully monitored and "choked" to avoid damage.
Now that we need to damage a well with an incredible flow rate we cant. It is out of my field of expertise but it would seem unlikely that this well could flow over an extended period with flow rates this high.
In my years in the oil field I can vouch for the fact that the BOP is never going to close. I have seen MWD (Measurement while drilling) tools and their components completely washed away by flow rates and pressures much much less than what this one has.
Last year I considered buying rental property in Destin but decided against it. My heart really goes out to all the commercial fisherman, property owners and everyone else who's livelihoods will be effected by this.
BP and Transocean are both blaming this on equipment failure, and the BOP clearly did not work when they needed it but the conditions that initiated the catastrophic failure were most likely caused by negligence. Now because someone was not doing there job properly hundreds of thousands of peoples will be impacted.
My computer has been "acoustically challenged" until this morning. Monitor with speakers crashed. Replacement gift... was without speakers. So I took myself to the local store, got some external speakers... and installed them this morning. Bob on Fox. How could I not???
Meanwhile, I've been catching up. Listened to the radio interview you posted links for. Your interview, and his.... full of great info.
Also, watched the video posted on fB by my friend Marty. Segment from "The Ed Show."
Lawyer (I know... lawyer who already has litigation going against BP.... so not too objective.)
However, he mentioned an "acoustic safety device" which every government in the world, but ours.... insists on companies using for offshore drilling.
So... I have two questions Bob?
Besides the BOP.... is there an additional safety device that could have prevented this... if our own government didn't give companies drilling in deep offshore.... a pass on "install it if you feel like it... and want to spend the money?"
And, had it been there.... would it have prevented this???? If it wouldn't have... why do countries like Norway... demand they be used??
(as an aside ... one of my most memorable experiences... when I worked in oil and gas.. was a trip to an offshore rig. Unforgettable. You're absolutely right... the professionalism and dedication of those folks who do that work.... without equal.)
Pretty scary scenario for the gulf coast with no end in sight.