As you know, COP 15, the UN annual climate conference, opens next week in Copenhagen. Last year, at COP 14 in Poznan, Poland, a framework for negotiation of a successor program to the Kyoto Protocol was laid out with high hopes that a definitive agreement could be negotiated at this year's conference. Those hopes have been dashed in the face of the US and China's standoff and not ready to forward their own enforceable greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction programs.
The success of a worldwide program of controlling GHG emissions hinges on the US and China, since almost 50% of these gases are produced by these countries. China, even though it is the second largest economy in the world and the largest creditor nation, has for years argued that the burden for greenhouse gas reductions should fall on older industrialized nations to make up for 100 years of emissions from them. The US, under GWB, refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol because it didn't include reductions in GHGs for China.
In the last couple of months, there has been some movement from both countries, but too little too late for Copenhagen. In short here are the two proposals:
Diplomacy is sometimes glacially slow...even as the glaciers continue to melt at a faster rate each year.
The success of a worldwide program of controlling GHG emissions hinges on the US and China, since almost 50% of these gases are produced by these countries. China, even though it is the second largest economy in the world and the largest creditor nation, has for years argued that the burden for greenhouse gas reductions should fall on older industrialized nations to make up for 100 years of emissions from them. The US, under GWB, refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol because it didn't include reductions in GHGs for China.
In the last couple of months, there has been some movement from both countries, but too little too late for Copenhagen. In short here are the two proposals:
- US - President Obama has announced that he will propose a 17% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020. US negotiators will not be able to offer this as an enforceable limit, however, since Congress is not yet on board.
- China - Has steadfastly resisted hard limits and recently proposed a 40-45% reduction in GHG by 2020 measured against "units of production" meaning that their emissions will actually continue to grow as its economy expands.
- Major industrial countries must propose GHG reduction programs. This has been accomplished, sort of, with the US and Chinese proposals.
- Delegates from the 190 nations in the conference must take immediate steps to reduce emissions and set up institutions to manage these efforts. There is movement here, but lots of disagreement about financing and managing these "prompt start" programs.
- Establishment of a $10 billion fund for developing nations emissions programs, with much larger funds from industrialized countries very soon. This won't likely occur, at least at this conference.
Diplomacy is sometimes glacially slow...even as the glaciers continue to melt at a faster rate each year.
Increments are better than nothing imo. At least with them you have forward movement.
I work for a Chinese woman from Taiwan. My office is ALL Chinese except me. some from Taiwan, some form mainland China. They are a smart bunch. A couple are very talkative. They say the PRC (mainland China) leaders don't give a shit about pollution or anything else for that matter. We don't know how poor 95% of the people are there. We don't know how "still under the thumb" of the ruthless government most are.
But more and more, like the ones I work with are coming to America, getting educated (advanced degrees from GOOD colleges) and going back. China will eventually change for the better. But only verrrrrrrry slowly.
In the meantime, I'm stil undecided on this issue. But, I'm glad I don't own any oceanfront property. OTOH, it WOULD be nice if it wasn't such a long drive to the beach.