The latest WSJ/NBC poll out yesterday continues to show Obama with a 6 point lead over McCain. If you mix in the other independent candidates, Obama's lead blows out to 13 points, 48 to 35. According to Pollster, Obama's lead over McCain in average national polls was only 2 points, narrowing over the last couple of weeks.
That's not the Republicans' problem, though. Their problem is twofold. First, in state by state polls,
Obama leads in electoral votes 306 to 172 overall. As a reminder, 270
are needed to win. If you just take strong leaning states, Obama leads
260 to 97. Swing states have been reduced to Florida, Nevada,
Missouri, and Indiana, a total of 60 votes. Even if McCain wins all the toss up states, it's not enough to overtake Obama's majority. I would categorize this as a bit of a problem for McCain.
But worse, Pew Research has just issued a new poll about young voters' attitudes and party identification. The Democrats' lead in this demographic has blown out this year, reaching 25 points:
This margin has increased from 11 points in the last presidential year, 2004. If the Repubs don't recognize this problem and undergo an extreme makeover to moderate their extreme right wing strategy, their minority in offices across the country could extend a generation. Looks like Rove's Permanent Majority strategy fell a little short.
I wonder now what the Republican party is now thinking of great leaders like GWB, Cheney, DeLay, Frist, Lott, Gingrich, and Hastert? Not to mention Cunningham, Foley, Ney, Gonzalez, and Craig? Not much, I'll bet.
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